Tuesday, 11 April 2017

Trading 101 – Don’t Bet Against the Markets Until the Markets Bet Against Themselves

See what we mean? How on earth can anyone bet against these markets right now with any sort of comfort or confidence. It’s just not possible. And, based on what we’re seeing so far this morning, it sure “looks” like we could be on the verge of more upside ahead, however, we’ve got some fairly interesting analysis for you – more on that in a second.
Yesterday’s trading activity did provide some late day clues to this morning’s move higher, as the markets kicked off trading yesterday to the downside, but by day’s end the markets had come roaring back yet again. Surprised? Don’t be. That’s just how they continue to behave these days.

More importantly, if the weekly chart of the NASDAQ is any indication of what’s to come, we could be in for an extremely sharp move higher now. We said this week could prove feast or famine for the markets on a near-term basis. Well, if it’s going to be feast, we’ll need not only a slight new all-time high – even if it’s just on an intra-day basis – we’ll need serious follow through. Here’s why…

Provided below is a weekly chart of the NASDAQ. We said on Monday we suspected the index would pull back this week. It did. However, the pullback stalled right on the 3X3 DMA (blue line), which we’ve pointed to here.

Now, it found its way back up against its recent highs, so considering we got the pullback it needed, where it stalled, and the fact it now appears to be working its way higher, it sure looks like we could finish the week on a strong note – especially since we’ve had so much volatility in recent days.

But, when you look at what happened in late August and the first week of September of last year, you can see the index did the exact same thing it’s done over the last several weeks… grind around, break down, snap back and grind around some more. If, and the big word is “IF”, the NASDAQ makes that slight new all-time high today or at any point this week, and breaks down miserably, we could be headed much lower.

With yesterday clearly being another one of those all-important Tuesdays, the markets proved once again they may just not be ready to break down on a short-term basis yet – especially when you break down the daily chart of the NASDAQ. As you can see, after days and days of back and forth index ETF swapping, the markets now appear to be in for another sharp leg up.

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