World stocks rises up from two and a half month low, China soothes currency markets

Global Stock Markets

World stocks rose on Tuesday, supported by gains in Europe and three straight days of tech-driven rises in the United States, even though markets across Asia and especially China remained in the grip of trade turbulence. 

Wall Street was set for another firmer session as investors positioned for strong Silicon Valley earnings before the reporting season starts next week, while European shares also rose after a deal on settling a migration policy row that had threatened Germany’s coalition government.

But a July 6 deadline is looming for Washington to impose tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods that Beijing has vowed to match with tariffs on U.S. products. President Donald Trump also threatened on Monday to “do something” if the United States was not better treated by the World Trade Organisation.

The prospects of a full-blown trade war and relentless yuan weakening CNY= -- it has fallen 5 percent in the past two weeks to 10-month lows -- reportedly forced China into intervention via state-run banks.. The currency then reversed earlier losses to move back into positive territory for the day against the dollar.

Other Asian currencies weakened, especially those such as the Indonesian rupiah that are doubly exposed — to trade and oil prices approaching $80 a barrel LCOc1.

Wall Street was set for another firmer session as investors positioned for strong Silicon Valley earnings before the reporting season starts next week, while European shares also rose after a deal on settling a migration policy row that had threatened Germany’s coalition government.

But a July 6 deadline is looming for Washington to impose tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods that Beijing has vowed to match with tariffs on U.S. products. President Donald Trump also threatened on Monday to “do something” if the United States was not better treated by the World Trade Organisation.

On equity markets, Hong Kong dived as much as 3.3 percent at one point to nine-month lows .HSI, hit also by a U.S. move to block China Mobile (0941.HK) from offering services to the U.S. market. Shanghai's bourse hit a 2-year trough .SSEC though both indexes inched higher towards the close as the yuan recovered. Japan's Nikkei .N225 edged to a near three-month closing low.

The mood was more cheerful in Europe where a pan-European equity index rose half a percent , the euro firmed marginally and bond yields rose after German Chancellor Angela Merkel struck the deal with her Bavarian conservative coalition partners.

Equity futures for the U.S. S&P500 and Nasdaq ESc1 NQc1 indicated a firmer session after Wall Street ended higher on Tuesday for the third day in a row. Gains of around 1 percent in tech firms such as Microsoft and Apple offset concerns about trade and its impact on growth.

Tech shares have been relatively resilient to trade fears - the New York Stock Exchange’s index of 10 tech giants including China’s Alibaba has gained over 30 percent this year. They are seen delivering another set of robust quarterly earnings.

While U.S. growth and company earnings seem unassailable, tit-for-tat tariffs from China and Europe may ultimately prove detrimental for American businesses and jobs.

U.S. Treasury bond yields rose slightly amid the easier mood but concern about the trade row has pushed the gap between two- and 10-year yields to the narrowest since 2007 US2US10=RR

World stocks jump on lull in trade tensions, euro gets summit boost

World stocks enjoyed a strong bounce on Friday as a recovery in Asian markets spread to European shares after a turbulent week of selling as investors’ fears of higher barriers to trade came closer to becoming reality. 

MSCI’s index of world stocks rose 0.5 percent by 0800 GMT, its strongest gain in three weeks, but its second quarter was still set to be in the red as investors priced in U.S. tariffs that are set to be implemented next week.

The U.S. administration is due to activate tariffs on Chinese goods worth $34 billion on July 6, which is expected to prompt a tit-for-tat response from Beijing.

European stocks rallied strongly, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 1.2 percent and Germany’s trade-sensitive DAX up 1.5 percent.

But trade wars have already mauled assets from the Chinese yuan to European autos stocks, and wiped $1.75 trillion off world stocks’ market capitalization since June 12.

The euro jumped after leaders at an EU summit reached an agreement on migration, rising 0.5 percent to $1.1622 at 0800 GMT.

Stocks creep higher, dollar retreats after U.S.- North Korea summit

World stocks crept higher on Tuesday while the dollar turned negative after hitting a three-week high at the end of a U.S.-North Korea summit aimed at the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.

U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un pledged to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, while Washington committed to provide security guarantees for its old enemy.

The MSCI All-Country World index .MIWD00000PUS, which tracks shares in 47 countries, was higher by less than 0.1 percent on the day. The dollar .DXY slipped into negative territory in European trade after earlier hitting a three-week high.

Investors had mixed reactions to the summit, which ended with the signing of a joint statement that gave few details on how the goals set by both sides would be achieved.

Others, such as RBC Capital Markets’ head of Asia FX strategy Sue Trinh said although a historic event, there was “nothing particularly game-changing” about the summit and both sides stood far apart on what denuclearization means.

In Asian equity markets, trading was volatile with Japan's Nikkei .N225 paring early gains to close 0.3 percent higher after earlier rising as much as 0.9 percent.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS seesawed between positive and negative territory, and was last up 0.15 percent.

South Korean shares .KS11 were a tad weaker while Chinese shares were buoyant after starting in the red. The blue-chip CSI 300 index .CSI300 jumped about 1.3 percent.

Europe had a muted open, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index up 0.1 percent.

World stocks bounce on report of U.S.-China trade talks

Global Stock Markets

World stocks came off six-week lows and U.S. stock futures jumped on Monday on optimism that the United States and China are set to begin negotiations on trade, easing fears about a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. 

MSCI’s world equity index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, touched its lowest level since Feb. 9 but was then buoyed to a 0.25 percent gain after a Wall Street Journal report that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin was considering a visit to Beijing to begin negotiations. 

U.S. stock futures shot up across the board, with Dow Futures up 1.2 percent while S&P futures and Nasdaq futures up 1.3 percent and 1.8 percent respectively. 

“Exemptions on steel/aluminium tariffs have already been granted for other important trade partners (Canada, Mexico, EU), which suggests the U.S. president is using this approach more for negotiating leverage rather than any real intention to start a global trade war,” wrote Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets, noting a “measured” and “nuanced” response from China so far. 

Most European stock indices also strengthened, with the pan-European STOXX 600 benchmark up nearly half a percent and the export-sensitive German DAX up 0.6 percent. 

Japan’s Nikkei, meanwhile, erased earlier losses of 1.3 percent to end 0.7 percent higher. 

Fears of a trade war mounted this month after Trump first slapped tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and then on Thursday specifically targeted China by announcing plans for tariffs on up to $60 billion of Chinese goods. 

Signs of potential compromises were also supported by news overnight that South Korea would be exempt from U.S. steel tariffs in a revision of the bilateral trade pact between the two countries. 

South Korea’s benchmark share index rose 0.8 percent.

The dollar also bounced off a 16-month low against the Japanese yen but remained close to a one-month low against a basket of currencies, suggesting that fears have not receded completely. 

Safe-haven government bonds yields, which have been compressed in recent times by worries over a potential trade war, firmed on Tuesday with U.S. Treasury yields rising 2 basis points and euro zone bond yields also edging higher. 

Concerns over the formation of a new anti-establishment government in Italy weighed on Southern European debt in particular on Monday, though this was counterbalanced to an extent by a ratings upgrade for Spain late on Friday. 

Italian bonds underperformed, with 10-year yields rising as much as 4 basis points on further signs that the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and the anti-migrant League might explore an alliance to form a government. 

But the euro was still on a positive trajectory, up half a percent to a 2-1/2 week high of $1.2417.

In commodities, international Brent crude futures opened above $70 a barrel for the first time since January.

In a sign that jitters are still running through the market, spot gold was hovering around five-week highs and was up slightly at $1,348.69 an ounce

Gold slips from 2-wk high as dollar gains

Global Stock Markets

Spot gold resistance at 200-day moving avg around $1,269 -trader 

Spot gold was down about 0.1 percent at $1,265.02 an ounce as of 0816 GMT, after earlier hitting its best since Dec. 6 at $1,268.26.

U.S. gold futures fell 0.1 percent at $1,268.30 an ounce.

The dollar edged higher against the yen on Thursday, after comments by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reinforced expectations that the BOJ was in no hurry to move away from its ultra-loose monetary policy.

Earlier in the session, gold prices hit a two-week high, helped by seasonal demand and steady closes on the technical charts, a Hong Kong-based trader said.

The 200-day moving average around $1,269.50 is currently weighing upon any attempts higher (for gold), MKS PAMP trader Sam Laughlin said in a note.

A rise in U.S. bond yields from optimism after lawmakers in the United States approved the biggest overhaul of the country's tax code in 30 years, also offered support to the greenback.

Rising bond yields tend to boost the dollar and weigh on the appeal of non-interest bearing gold. Asian stocks, however, traded lower as cheer waned after the passage of the bill with investors remaining divided on its impact on the U.S. economy.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday threatened to cut off financial aid to countries that vote in favor of a draft United Nations resolution calling for the United States to withdraw its decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital.

Among other precious metals, spot silver was unchanged at $16.17 an ounce, having climbed to a two-week top of $16.26 in the previous session. Platinum was 0.5 percent lower at $913.50 an ounce,
after marking its best since Dec. 5 in the previous session.

Palladium gained 0.2 percent to $1,027.57.

World shares off record highs as U.S. tax bill passes Senate

Global Stock Markets

World stock markets wavered just below recent record highs while U.S. Treasury yields held near multi-month peaks on Wednesday as the final procedural throes of long-awaited U.S. tax reform played out in Washington.

The Republican-led U.S. Senate approved the sweeping $1.5-trillion tax bill in the early hours of Wednesday. A re-vote by the House of Representatives was scheduled for later in the day, with approval expected, and the bill will then go to President Donald Trump to sign into law.

European stock markets nudged lower , with blue-chip indexes in Germany .GDAXI, France .FCHI and Britain .FTSE flat to a touch weaker on the day.

In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS bobbed lower in a choppy session, while Japan's Nikkei index .N225 finished up 0.1 percent.


MSCI’s world equity index .MIWD00000PUS, which tracks shares in 47 countries, was little changed and holding just below record highs hit on Monday.

U.S. Treasury yields, which notched up their biggest one-day jump in almost three months on Tuesday as the tax bill moved towards passage, steadied at around 2.46 percent US10YT=RR -- holding near the previous day’s highs.

Republicans, who control both lawmaking chambers, said their tax plan would boost consumer spending and business investments, while independent government estimates showed the proposed tax cuts would end up adding at least $1 trillion to the $20 trillion national debt in 10 years.

Europe’s bond markets were also nursing losses after a heavy selloff on Tuesday that saw Germany’s long-dated yields DE30YT=TWEB rise to three-week highs after the euro zone’s benchmark bond issuer announced plans to issue more longer-dated debt next year.

The euro got a lift from higher euro zone rates, gaining 0.5 percent on Tuesday, when central bank governors of Estonia, Slovakia and Germany all discussed the need to shift the debate from bond purchases to other tools such as interest rates.

Against a basket of six rival currencies, the dollar was a touch lower on the day at 93.418 .DXY.
The greenback edged down 0.2 percent to 113.11 yen JPY=, while the euro was a touch firmer at $1.1850 EUR=.

Bitcoin was almost 4 percent lower on the Bitstamp exchange at $17,007 BTC=BTSP, after earlier losing almost one-fifth of its value from a peak hit just three days ago.

Sweden’s crown briefly surged as much as 1 percent EURSEK=D3 after the central bank kept rates unchanged but said it would reinvest coupons and cash from maturing bonds, including bringing forward some reinvestments into 2018.

Elsewhere, U.S. crude oil futures extended gains, helped by a North Sea pipeline outage, OPEC-led supply cuts and expectations that U.S. crude inventories had fallen for a fifth week. [O/R]
U.S. crude CLc1 was up 0.3 percent, or 15 cents, at $57.71 a barrel, while Brent crude LCOc1 was 0.2 percent higher.

PRECIOUS-Gold edges higher as dollar wilts ahead of U.S. tax vote

Global Stock Markets

Gold rose on Tuesday as caution ahead of the passage of sweeping new tax legislation in the United States weighed on the dollar, with traders uncertain of its actual impact on economic growth. 

Moves in the metal were muted, however, with traders wary of taking new positions ahead of the holiday season. 

Gold is on track to post its narrowest trading range of any quarter in a decade in the last three months of the year. Spot gold was up 0.2 percent at $1,263.62 an ounce at 1030 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for February delivery were up 90 cents an ounce at $1,266.40. 

Last week the metal fell to a five-month low of $1,235.92 as the dollar hit its highest in a month ahead of a widely anticipated U.S interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve. 

With the Republicans' self-imposed Friday voting deadline looming, the U.S. Congress appeared all but certain to pass sweeping tax legislation after two Senate Republican holdouts agreed on Monday to support the tax overhaul backed by President Donald Trump. 

World stocks steadied after their biggest jump in almost six months, fuelled by U.S. tax cut hopes.

That rally fed into what was already one of the strongest and longest global bull runs on record. 

The dollar eased against the euro, however, as investors took a cautious view over how much tax reforms, if passed, would boost the U.S. economy. 

Even as the Congress moved closer to the tax reform, outgoing Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen last week gave a more sobering assessment of its impact, saying a short-term bump was likely, but a longer-term boost was not. 

Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, New York-based SPDR Gold Shares , fell 7.1 tonnes on Monday, their largest one-day outflow since late July. That has cut its inflow for the year to just 15 tonnes. 

Among other precious metals, silver was down 0.2 percent at $16.10 an ounce. 

Platinum was up 0.3 percent at $909.50 an ounce, having climbed back above $900 for the first time in nearly two weeks on Monday. The metal has rallied nearly $30 an ounce in the last two trading sessions. Palladium was little changed at $1,017.40 an ounce.

Global stocks clock up fresh records as oil hits highest since mid-2015

World stock markets notched up a fresh record high on Wednesday, powered by a 3 percent jump in basic resources shares after oil prices hit their highest since mid-2015 and by robust earnings from companies such as Sony.

The latest gains came ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, which is expected to signal a third rise in borrowing costs before the end of the year, and of a further flurry of earnings results that include Facebook. 

The pan-European STOXX 600 index hit its highest level since August 2015. Some of that was down to Germany’s DAX index which, playing catch-up after Tuesday’s holiday, jumped 1.7 percent to hit a fresh high. 

Stock markets in London and Paris climbed 0.2-0.4 percent on the day, and U.S. stock market futures pointed to another strong session for Wall Street. 

In Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan hit a 10-year peak. Japan’s Nikkei jumped 1.9 percent to a 21-year high on booming profits for Japan Inc. 

Shares of Japanese multinational Sony soared as much as 12.3 percent to a nine-year high after the electronics and entertainment firm forecast its best ever annual profit. 

As of Tuesday’s close, 45 percent of MSCI Europe companies had reported results for the third quarter, of which 66 percent either beat or met expectations, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S data.

The combination of robust economic and corporate earnings growth from the third quarter is giving the long-running bull market a new lease of life.

MSCI’s world stock index climbed 0.3 percent to a record high. Surging oil prices helped lift basic resources stocks in Europe, which include the continent’s biggest mining firms, by 3 percent. 

Oil rose to its highest since mid-2015 as data showed OPEC has significantly improved compliance with its pledged supply cuts, and Russia is also widely expected to keep to the deal. 

Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, rose to $61.70 per barrel, the highest since July 2015. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $55.12 a barrel, up 74 cents.

World stocks head for record 12th month of gains

World stocks headed for a record twelfth month of gains on Tuesday, as a 5 1/2-month high in European stocks and records elsewhere underscored one of the most robust bull markets on record.

Europe’s latest rally came as figures from the once-fragile euro zone showed its growth now running at 2.5 percent year-on-year and unemployment at its lowest since early 2009 at under 9 percent. 

It helped Europe’s main bourses <0#.INDEXE> extend modest early gains[.EU] ahead of what was expected to be a higher start for Wall Street and Asia had mostly risen despite some disappointing industrial data from China.

Focus also remained on the dollar which was set for its biggest monthly rise since February, having been knocked back slightly on Monday by fresh political unease [/FRX]. 

Federal investigators probing Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election charged President Donald Trump’s former campaign manager, Paul Manafort, and another aide, Rick Gates, with money laundering. 

Italy’s borrowing costs however were set to end October with their biggest monthly drop in more than two years after a surprise ratings upgrade, the extension of the ECB’s bond buying program and the approval of a new electoral system. 

Italy’s benchmark 10-year bond yield had fallen to its lowest level in around 10 months before the data at 1.837 percent IT10YT=TWEB. It is down over 30 basis points this month, which is the biggest move since July 2015.

Shares in heavyweight oil major BP (BP.L) jumped more than 3 percent to their highest since July 2014, after third quarter profits beat expectations and it announced a share buyback program.

Ryanair (RYA.I), hurt recently by canceled flights, climbed more than 5 percent after it maintained its full-year profit guidance, though BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) sank 3 percent after its results disappointed. 

So far, more than 40 percent of MSCI Europe companies have reported results for the third quarter, of which 65 percent have either met or beaten expectations, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S data.

Financials and tech are sectors standing out for their large proportion of beats. [.EU]

World stocks hit new high as Spanish relief, tech rally boost European trading

World Stock Markets

World stocks hit a new record high on Monday, boosted by strong global technology stocks, while European trading was lifted by a recovery in Spanish markets after a poll eased investors’ concerns over Catalan secession.

MSCI’s world equity index .MIWD00000PUS, which tracks shares in 47 countries, rose 0.2 percent to its highest ever level. The index has surged 17.7 percent so far in 2017, and is on track for its best annual showing since 2013. 

Euro zone stocks .STOXXE climbed 0.2 percent, holding near their highest level in 10 years. European stocks have surged this year as a healthy economy dovetailed with convincing growth in corporate earnings and a reduction in political risk.

Spanish stocks jumped 1.4 percent and government borrowing costs fell after a weekend survey suggested Catalan secessionists may lose their majority in regional elections scheduled for December.

Spain's benchmark 10-year bond yield fell 2 basis points to 1.52 percent ES10YT=TWEB. Banks Caixabank (CABK.MC) and Sabadell (SABE.MC), which moved their headquarters out of Catalonia due to the crisis, led gains on the IBEX .IBEX. 

The broader market showed signs of relief, with euro zone banks .SX7E rising 0.9 percent, and Italian stocks - which have been sensitive to the Spanish crisis - up 0.5 percent. Germany’s 10-year bond yield DE10YT=TWEB also fell. 

Technology stocks also drove European trading, riding a wave of gains on Nasdaq and in Asia after Apple said pre-orders for its new iPhone X were “off the charts”. 

iPhone component suppliers AMS (AMS.S), Dialog Semiconductor (DLGS.DE) and STMicro .STM.MI led gains.

Europe’s tech sector .SX8P has quietly boomed this year, and is outperforming the Nasdaq .NDX in the year so far. 

Spanish relief also helped the euro EUR= recover from its three-month low to trade up 0.2 percent at $1.1635. 

The ECB’s decision last week to extend bond purchases into September 2018 had sent the euro sharply lower.

Earnings and commodities keep stocks bulls happy

World stocks stayed near record highs on Tuesday, as a flurry of U.S. earnings and a rally in commodity markets helped underpin one of the most durable bull runs of recent history. 

Stronger profits from investment bank Morgan Stanley and healthcare majors Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth looked set to keep Wall Street’s rally intact when it reopens [.N] after largely flat morning on Europe’s big bourses. 

The dollar .DXY meanwhile was enjoying its longest winning streak since February, posting a fourth day of gains supported by broad-based weakness for the euro and the pound. [/FRX] 

It had been lifted overnight, along with interest rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury yields, by reports that U.S. President Donald Trump might pick Stanford University economist John Taylor to lead the Federal Reserve after Janet Yellen’s term ends next year. 

Taylor is an advocate of a rules-based approach to interest rate policy that would likely see official Fed rates much higher than at present - at least 3.5 percent according to some economists. 

The pop in short-yields was not matched at the long end though and the 2-to-10 year U.S. yield curve hit its shallowest in more than a year before markets began to price in a bit more caution in European trading.

German Bunds and UK gilts had initially followed U.S. yields higher. British and euro zone inflation figures both came in strong to bolster bets on the first UK rate rise in over a decade and stimulus withdrawal from the ECB.

The moves then unraveled amid central banker chatter GBP= that was seen as being more mixed than of late. 

The euro EUR=EBS dropped to $1.1754 while sterling GBP=D3 fell half a percent on the day to as low as $1.3192 as 10-year gilt yields dropped to a 3-week low. [GVD/EUR] [FRX/] 

Silvana Tenreyro, a new member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, said upward pressure on UK inflation from sterling’s weakness would start to wane in the coming months.

Earlier on Tuesday, data showed Britain’s inflation rate hit 3 percent, above the BoE’s 2 percent target but in line with expectations.

Dollar heads for worst week in five as stocks cheer record streak

World stocks advanced for a fourth straight day on Friday on expectations of broad-based global growth, while the dollar was on course for its worst week in five as investors awaited U.S. inflation data.

MSCI’s world equity index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, was up 0.1 percent after hitting record highs on Thursday. 

Earlier in Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan hit a 10-year high.

European shares rose to their highest level in nearly four months, helped by some well-received earnings updates. The pan-European STOXX600 rose 0.3 percent and was set for its fifth straight week of gains as were world stocks. 

Germany’s DAX index was up 0.1 percent, just below an all-time high hit in the previous session, while Britain’s FTSE eased back 0.1 percent after a record close on Thursday. 

Wall Street futures indicated a positive open for the S&P 500 index.

Emerging market stocks were buoyant too as another 0.2 percent rise set their latest 6-year peak.

In currencies, the dollar stayed on the defensive after minutes from the last U.S. Federal Reserve meeting showed policymakers remained divided on U.S. inflation prospects. 

The index which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies was flat ahead of consumer price inflation data, due at 1230 GMT.

Dollar gains as Europe struggles with Spain pains

World stocks fell for the first time in eight days on Friday, as jitters about Catalonia’s push to separate from Spain returned to Europe and bets on higher U.S. interest rates sent the dollar to its highest since mid August.

Traders were preparing for their monthly installment of U.S jobs data but there was too much movement in Europe to allow the normal pre-payrolls lull in market activity. 

Spanish stocks .IBEX and bond prices, which had rallied on Thursday, were sent tumbling back again as a Catalonian official said the region's parliament would meet on Monday in defiance of a ruling by Spain's constitutional court. 

It sent the euro scuttling back below $1.17 EUR= again and gave the dollar .DXY another leg up as it headed for a fourth consecutive week of gains a move that is also starting to apply pressure to currency-sensitive emerging markets.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the figures to show 90,000 new U.S. jobs were created in September, down from 156,000 in August. It will also show how hurricanes Harvey and Irma affected the labour market. 

U.S. data this week has been solid on the whole. It has been one of the reasons for the dollar’s strength by also feeding bets that the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates for a third time this year in December. 

Interest rate futures traders are now pricing in an 86 percent likelihood of a December rate hike, up from 78 percent a week ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. 

Aberdeen Standard Investments Senior Investment Manager James Athey said the question now was what happens next year. Not only is inflation still subdued but the Fed could well get a new head.

It has been a far less impressive week for Britain’s sterling amid growing worries over Theresa May’s future as British prime minister, as well as over the health of the economy. 

The currency slipped to its lowest against the dollar in a month on Friday and was headed for its worst week against the U.S. currency in a year as it slipped another half a cent to $1.3060.

The Australian dollar was down 0.5 percent too at $0.7753 after falling to as low as $0.7743 AUD=D4, its weakest since mid-July. The Aussie slid following media reports that Reserve Bank of Australia board member Ian Harper had said he is not ruling out an interest rate cut. 

In commodities meanwhile, Brent crude LCOc1 was down 0.1 percent at $56.94 a barrel.
The futures contract had surged 2.1 percent overnight on signs Saudi Arabia and Russia would limit production through next year, although caution towards a tropical storm heading for the Gulf of Mexico cut short the advance.

FTSE falls as consumer stocks falter, Greene King drowns sorrows

A fall in mining stocks put pressure on Britain’s top share index on Friday, while British consumer-facing stocks came into sharp focus after pub operator Greene King’s (GNK.L) shares plunged following a bleak trading update.

The blue chip FTSE 100 .FTSE index ended down 0.3 percent at 7,377.60 points, while mid caps .FTMC declined 0.4 percent.

A decline in the copper price weighed on the FTSE’s miners, with Antofagasta (ANTO.L), BHP Billiton (BLT.L) and Anglo American (AAL.L) all down more than 3 percent.

Shares in mid cap brewer Greene King slumped more than 15 percent to a five-year low after it reported a fall in sales at its pubs, warning of tougher times ahead.

The rise in inflation following Britain’s vote to leave the European Union last June has squeezed consumer spending, which has also been hit by muted wage growth. This in turn has made it a difficult environment for firms in the pub, restaurant and retail industries.

Shares in rivals Marston’s (MARS.L), Mitchells & Butlers (MAB.L) and J D Wetherspoon (JDW.L) all fell, by between 2.6 percent and 8.5 percent. Among blue chips, Costa Coffee operator Whitbread (WTB.L) declined 0.6 percent.

The FTSE 100 ended a week dominated by a European Central Bank meeting with a loss of 0.8 percent. Banks, however, were among top gainers on Friday after the central bank indicated it was preparing to scale back its stimulus programme.

Burberry (BRBY.L) rose 0.5 percent on the back of a positive note from Credit Suisse, whose analysts raised the luxury goods group to “outperform”, highlighting it as one of their top turnaround picks.

North Korea missile and strong euro sink European stocks

World stocks tumbled and safe-haven assets soared on Tuesday after North Korea fired a missile over northern Japan, fuelling worries of fresh tension between Washington and Pyongyang.

The risk-off move spread from Asia to Europe and a rally in the euro to above a key level chipped in to put regional stocks on track at one point for their biggest one-day loss in 11 months.

The pan-European STOXX index fell as much as 1.7 percent to their lowest in six months before paring losses to trade down 1.3 percent, while Wall Street futures pointed to sharp losses at the open.

Japan’s Nikkei .N225 hit a four-month low before paring losses to end 0.5 percent down and South Korea’s Kospi <.KS11 shed as much as 1.6 percent before ending down 0.2 percent.

The MSCI World Index .MIWO00000PUS, which tracks stocks from developed economies, fell just 0.1 and remained above a five-week low hit earlier his month on jitters over North Korea, growing turmoil at the White House and a deadly attack in Spain.

North Korea fired a missile on Tuesday that flew over Japan and landed in the Pacific about 1,180 km (735 miles) off the northern region of Hokkaido in a sharp escalation of tensions on the Korean peninsula.

The Asian country has conducted dozens of ballistic missile tests under young leader Kim Jong-Un, but firing projectiles over mainland Japan is his first.

The unprecedented move raised worries that the crisis could further mount, sparking a rush into safe haven assets from the Japanese yen to the Swiss franc and the German bund.

The dollar hit its lowest level since mid-April against the yen and was last down 0.7 percent at 108.55 JPY=.

The Japanese currency tends to benefit during times of geopolitical or financial stress because Japan is the world’s biggest creditor nation and there is an assumption that Japanese investors will repatriate funds should a crisis materialize.

Also the safe-haven Swiss franc strengthened, while gold XAU=, up 0.8 percent to $1,320 an ounce, hit its highest level in more than nine months after three straight days of gains.

The metal also drew support from uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration after remarks last week raised fears of a government shutdown.

Investors also rushed to the safety of U.S. Treasuries, briefly pushing down the 10-year yield US10YT=RR to its lowest since mid-November, while the yield on Germany’s 10-year government bond DE10YT=TWEB fell to 0.336 percent, the lowest since end June.

Wrong Time to be a Bear

You see, people can’t help themselves they prefer to be bearish. In fact, it seems we are genetically predisposed to being pessimistic.  This is why the bearishness viewpoint sells. As one client who subscribes to a perpetually bearish author recently put it:

The material might not be helpful, and even harmful. But, it gets the most clicks, as people are very drawn to scary viewpoints, and many take comfort and consolation in believing that the profits that they have missed out on by being more cautious will be wiped out when the big crash comes . . . In other words scary stuff sells. It does not need to stand up to careful scrutiny.  Most people will never look carefully at the facts, and will believe what they want to believe.

Look at his last two sentences, as it rings of the sad truth in the market.
To quote Ben Franklin: “So convenient a thing is it is to be a reasonable creature, since it enables one to find or to make a reason for everything one has a mind to do.”

As I explained in other articles, we are predisposed to bearishness. So, we will ALWAYS look for a reason to be bearish. This is why bearish writers have received constant praise despite the fact that they have been wrong for years.

The subscribers to these sites heap praise upon them due to the fact that they have “opened their eyes to the reasons why the market will not go any higher.” Yet, as we have seen, the markets have continued significantly higher. So, the higher they go, the more they are grateful to bearish article writers for “saving them from the inevitable crash that is just around the corner.” All the while, they have missed the last 40+% rally in order to protect themselves from the next 5% downside.

In todays world it is much tougher to be a contrarian than it is to be a bear. To be a bear means you are simply following normal human behavior. So to be a bear in the stock market means that you will likely be wrong the most of the time. Therefore, if you follow your gut, it means that you likely have significantly under-performed the market.

So are we suggesting that you should turn bullish right now? Absolutely not, but it does mean that you need to analyze your investment mistakes over the last several years, and understand what were the factors that resulted in you making those mistakes. We sincerely hope you consider your perspective quite strongly before you are presented with another opportunity to take a long position in the equity market in the coming months.

Another truth in the market is that many investors will never admit to is that they were wrong and the market was right.  In other words, price it truth, and we must learn to accept this. Anything that tries to explain why price is false is, by definition, is a falsehood. Yet, even seasoned investors will simply continue to list all the reasons why they were right and the market was wrong. It is irrational to believe that fighting the market is going to help anyone reach his or her financial goals?

One last shocking fact for you to consider: It is due to bearishness that the market has continued higher and higher. As unbelievable as it might sound, that is the truth. Until the entire market, as a whole, is convinced that this bull market is over it will never end, the market will continue to climb that wall of worry that each of the bears have helped to build these last 8 years.

Based upon our analysis, we still have several more years for this bearishness to persist, which will then be the time that this bull market that began in 2009 will finally come to an end. It is at that point that we will sincerely thank the Bears and all their wall of worry for pushing this market far beyond your expectations.

We want to remind those willing to listen that pullbacks and consolidations are inevitable and expected. That means the market will continue to whipsaw trade over the next few months, but as long as all these “bumps” we now experience remain below 2460-80 SPX resistance, we view this as being in a whipsaw type of market, ultimately making its way down to the 2300-2350SPX support area before this pullback or consolidation is completed in the coming months.

While we believe that there is a 20% probability that we can still hit 2500-2520 SPX, even in that lower probability scenario, it 80% likely we are headed down to the 2300-2350 before we are able to rally to 2600SPX, likely into 2018.

World stocks steady; focus on Jackson Hole keeps market cautious

World stocks steadied on Thursday after two turbulent weeks as geopolitical worries eased in Asia and caution prevailed on the day the annual Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers gets underway.

The MSCI World index .WORLDE, which fell to a five-week low on Monday, was down 0.05 percent. Gains by cyclical stocks helped Europe's benchmark STOXX 600 index inch up 0.2 percent. 

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS also gained, shaking off jitters that gripped markets after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to shut down the U.S. government and end the North American Free Trade Agreement. 

Trump said on Tuesday he would be willing to risk a government shutdown to secure funding for a wall along the Mexico border. Those comments came before a late-September deadline to raise the U.S. debt ceiling or risk defaulting on debt payments.

But Japan's Nikkei .N225 fell 0.4 percent, dragged down a stronger yen and by steel makers, after reports that the country's biggest producer was cutting prices. 

Markets were focusing on the central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi were both due to speak, although new policy messages were considered unlikely.

The dollar edged up against some other major currencies after falling on worries about a possible U.S. government shutdown. The dollar is down 14 percent against the euro this year. 

The dollar index .DXY, which tracks the U.S. currency against a basket of six other major currencies, gained 0.2 percent to 93.311 on Thursday, following the previous day's 0.4 percent slide. 

The euro EUR=EBS slipped 0.1 percent at $1.17935, after climbing 0.4 percent on Wednesday on surveys that showed German and French manufacturing and services were expanding . 

In commodities, oil was steady, holding on to most of their recent gains after another fall in U.S. crude inventories indicated a tighter market, and as a tropical storm headed towards oil producing facilities in the Gulf of Mexico. 

Brent crude futures, LCOc1 the international benchmark for oil prices, were trading flat at $52.58 per barrel.

Asia stocks brush off Wall Street slide after Trump's comments

Asian stocks and the dollar edged up on Thursday, shaking off the risk aversion that gripped financial markets overnight after President Donald Trump threatened to shut down the U.S. government and end the North American Free Trade Agreement. 

Financial spreadbetters expect Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE, Germany's DAX .GDAXI and France's CAC 40 .FCHIto open marginally higher. 

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.45 percent.

Japan's Nikkei .N225 pulled back 0.3 percent, with steelmakers slumping after the Nikkei business daily reported that Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) was looking to cut the price of steel supplied to component makers in the October-March period. 

That is the result of lower rates, agreed for the six months through September with steelmakers such as Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corp.Three of the five biggest decliners on the index were steelmakers. 

Chinese blue chips .CSI300 were down about 0.3 percent, shrugging off a 23 percent jump in profits for Chinese state-owned firms in the first seven months of 2017 from a year earlier.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng .HSI climbed 0.5 percent. 

South Korea's KOSPI .KS11 added 0.4 percent and Australian stocks gained almost 0.1 percent.

Overnight, U.S. stock indexes closed between 0.3 percent .IXIC .SPX and 0.4 percent .DJI lower. 

Trump said at a Tuesday night rally in Arizona that he would be willing to risk a government shutdown to secure funding for a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Those comments came ahead of a late-September deadline to raise the U.S. debt ceiling or risk defaulting on debt payments

Australian Shares Rose, The Euro Edged Dow

Australian shares rose 0.4 percent, while Japan's Nikkei stock index finished down 0.1 percent.

The dollar steadied against its Japanese counterpart, after slumping to four-month lows last week, up 0.3 percent at 119.25.

The euro edged down 0.1 percent to $1.1801, but rose 0.2 percent to 128.92 yen.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, was up 0.1 percent to 93.218. 

The dollar has recently faced selling pressure from tepid U.S. inflation data which have fed into expectations the Federal Reserve will adopt a patient approach to further monetary tightening. 

Political turmoil in Washington has also hampered the greenback as investors have begun to doubt President Donald Trump's ability to implement much of his aggressive stimulus and tax reform measures. 

"The dollar was the loser against all of its pairs and I think that's broadly reflective of fading expectations of what the Fed might do," said Bill Northey, chief investment officer at U.S. Bank Private Client Group in Helena, Montana.

Expectations of what might emerge from the Fed's annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming are also "relatively tempered," Northey said. 

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak at the conference, but central bank observers do not expect her to give new guidance on policy. 

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will not deliver any new policy message at Jackson Hole, two sources familiar with the situation said. 

Crude oil prices firmed, lifted by indications that supply is gradually tightening, especially in the United States. 

Brent crude futures added 23 cents to $51.89 per barrel, while U.S. crude rose 18 cents to $47.55.

Maersk, miners help limit losses in European shares as risk-off moves continue

European stocks fell further in early deals on Monday as geopolitical jitters on the Korean peninsula trickled over from Asian trading, though shipping company Maersk and strong mining stocks helped limit losses.

The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.2 percent, starting the week on the back foot, with euro zone stocks .STOXXE and blue-chips .STOXX50E down 0.2 to 0.3 percent. 

The risk-off move hit banks .SX7P the hardest, with RBS (RBS.L) and Barclays (BARC.L) among top losers, along with French lenders Societe Generale (SOGN.PA), BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) and Credit Agricole (CAGR.PA). 

After recent losses, the STOXX 600 was down 6 percent from its mid-May 20-month peak.

Strong metals prices helped cap benchmark losses, however, with mining stocks .SXPP jumping 1 percent after London zinc rose to its highest in a decade on robust Chinese demand for steel. [nL4N1L71UD] 

Rio Tinto (RIO.L), BHP Billiton (BLT.L) and Anglo American (AAL.L) were among the top gainers.

Deal-making also boosted a few of the best-performing stocks. 

Maersk (MAERSKb.CO) jumped 5 percent to lead European gainers after the firm agreed to sell Maersk Oil to French oil major Total (TOTF.PA) for $7.45 billion. [nL8N1L70VI] 

Fiat Chrysler (FCHA.MI) shares jumped 3.5 percent after Chinese carmaker Great Wall (601633.SS) asked for a meeting with the Italian carmaker with the aim of making an offer for all or part of the Italian-American auto group.

With the second-quarter European reporting season drawing to a close, 60 percent of companies have either beaten or met expectations, though share price reactions have been muted overall.