Futures flat as investors await Fed speakers

U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Monday, the wait for a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen later in the week helping cool any lift from a handful of positive stock recommendations.

* Gains for the far-right in German elections that make government-forming more complicated for Chancellor Angela Merkel weighed on European markets. 

* The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged in its September policy meeting, as expected, but signaled it still expects one more increase by the end of the year, despite a recent bout of low inflation. 

* Investors will look for more guidance on monetary policy from a list of speakers on Monday including New York Fed President William Dudley, Chicago Chief Charles Evans and their Minneapolis counterpart, Neel Kashkari. 

* A team of Republican policy makers is expected to release a plan on Wednesday targeting tax cuts for businesses, but offer few clues about how to replace reduced federal revenues, according to sources. 

* General Motors (GM.N) rose 1.65 percent in premarket trading after Deutsche Bank upgraded the automaker’s stock to “buy” from “hold”. 

* AIG (AIG.N) fell about 0.5 percent after the insurer said it would reorganize into three new business units and no longer have commercial and consumer businesses. 

* Under Armour (UAA.N) was up 1.6 percent after KeyBanc upgraded the company’ stock to “overweight”. 

* Senate up against a Saturday deadline for deciding the fate of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, popularly known as Obamacare. The chances of repealing and replacing Obamacare appear slim after Republican Senator McCain said he will not back the latest healthcare plan. 

* The S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Friday as worries about Washington’s latest healthcare legislation proposal eased.

FORK IN THE ROAD, STOCK HEADWINDS

The dividend yield on the telecom sector .SPLRCL is 5.2 percent while the utilities sector .SPLRCU holds a 3.4 percent yield compared with a 2.4 percent yield for the broad S&P 500 index. 

Those sectors have had divergent fortunes this year, however, with utilities up more than 12 percent while telecoms have dropped more than 14 percent, the worst among the major S&P sectors. 

Telecoms also show a forward price to earnings ratio (PE) of 12.9, well below the 17.6 of the S&P 500. Utilities, however, are slightly more expensive with an 18.4 ratio, which could make them less attractive to investors even with the dividend premium.

The utilities sector has a strong 50-day negative correlation to the 10-year yield of 0.87, indicating the opposite directions they have traveled in. Telecoms, while still a negative 0.24, have a looser bond. 

As investors weigh increasing risks for equities, including stretched valuations in what is typically a difficult period for stocks, the high dividend payers may be a safer play in a market that could be primed for a pullback. 

Tension with North Korea, economic disruption from major hurricanes and political wrangling in Washington are also among the issues investors have to contend with. 

“September and October are historically trying months for equities and add on to that geopolitical risk, it is somewhat prudent to be taking a little bit off the table here,” said Anthony Conroy, president at Abel Noser in New York.