Oil prices rise with Libya's force majeure and emerging slowdown in demand held back markets.

Oil Stock Markets

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday after Libya declared force majeure on some of its supplies, although an overall rise in OPEC output and an emerging slowdown in demand held back markets. 

Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were at $77.71 per barrel at 0217 GMT, up 41 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were up 57 cents, or 0.8 percent, at $74.51.

OPEC’s June output was 32.32 million barrels per day (bpd), a Reuters survey showed on Monday, up 320,000 bpd from May. The June total is the highest since January 2018.

Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) declared force majeure on loadings from Zueitina and Hariga ports on Monday, resulting in total production losses of 850,000 bpd due to the closure of eastern fields and ports.

Traders have also been watching U.S. oil production C-OUT-T-EIA, which has surged by 30 percent over the last two years to 10.9 million bpd, absorbing some of the recent disruptions.

Overall, however, analysts said OPEC’s production policy as well as unplanned supply disruptions
were currently the main price drivers.

“In the near-term, the level of OPEC production - deployment of spare capacity by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait (and ex-OPEC by Russia), and involuntary disruptions in Libya, Venezuela, Iran - are more important drivers of crude prices,” Goldman Sachs said in a note published late on Monday.

What has become a concern, at least for producers, is a slowdown in demand which may end years of consecutive records.

In Asia, the world’s top oil consuming region, seaborne oil imports have been falling since May, as higher costs turned off consumers and as the escalating trade dispute between the United States and China starts to impact the economy.

Oil price drops despite OPEC cuts & Iran sanctions

Oil Stock Markets

Oil prices fell on Wednesday, weighed down by ample supplies despite ongoing output cuts by producer cartel OPEC and looming U.S. sanctions against major crude exporter Iran. 

Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $78.23 per barrel at 0445 GMT, down 20 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $71.08 a barrel, down 23 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last settlement.

Despite the dips, both financial oil benchmarks remained close to their November 2014 highs of $79.47 and $71.92 a barrel respectively, reached the previous day.

But there are signs in physical crude markets that may give pause to financial investors.

There are also signs that oil production will rise, especially at majors like ExxonMobil (XOM), Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L), Chevron (CVX.N), BP (BP.L) and Total (TOTF.PA).


Spot crude oil cargo prices are at their steepest discounts to futures prices in years as sellers are struggling to find buyers for West African, Russian and Kazakh cargoes, while pipeline bottlenecks trap supply in west Texas and Canada.

The bottleneck in North America likely contributed to a 4.9 million barrel rise in U.S. crude oil inventories, to 435.6 million barrels, that the private American Petroleum Institute reported on Tuesday.

Official U.S. government fuel storage data is due for release by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) later on Wednesday.

Despite Wednesday’s dips and some indicators implying the financial oil has overshot physical oil, overall crude market conditions have tightened since 2017 when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) started to withhold supplies to push up oil prices.

With renewed U.S. sanctions looming against OPEC-member Iran and oil demand strong, analysts said crude markets will likely remain tight for much of the year.

Stronger oil prices are also spilling into other markets.

Oil prices stable but rising US supply drags on bull-run

Oil Stock Markets

Oil prices were stable on Wednesday, but were below the more than three-year highs reached the previous session as rising U.S. fuel inventories and production weighed on an otherwise bullish market.

Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were at $73.89 per barrel at 0455 GMT, up 3 cents from their last close but around $1.60 below the November-2014 high of $75.47 a barrel reached the previous day.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were flat at $67.7 63 per barrel, but off the late-2014 highs of $69.56 a barrel marked earlier in April.

Despite Wednesday’s dips, which traders said were also a result of profit-taking after Tuesday’s highs, many analysts say the period of oversupply that started in 2014 has now ended due to supply disruptions and also strong demand.

That has been driven by production cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) which were introduced in 2017 with the aim of propping up the market, but also because of political risk to supplies in the Middle East, Venezuela and Africa.

Because of the tighter market, the forward curve for Brent <0#LCO:> is now above $70 per barrel until the end of 2018, and prices are above $60 per barrel through 2020.


With most U.S. producers now profitable at prices under $40 per barrel and the forward curve significantly higher than that for years to come, American drillers will likely continue to increase output as they are able to hedge themselves profitably for the foreseeable future.

U.S. crude oil production C-OUT-T-EIA has already shot up by more than a quarter since mid-2016 to over 10.54 million barrels per day (bpd), taking it past Saudi Arabia’s output of around 10 million bpd. Only Russia currently produces more, at almost 11 million bpd.

U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.1 million barrels in the week to April 20 to 429.1 million, according to a report by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday.

Official weekly U.S. fuel inventory and crude production data will be published on Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Oil prices rise on fall in U.S. crude inventories, global supply risks

Oil Stock Markets

Oil prices rose on Wednesday, lifted by a reported decline in U.S. crude inventories and by the ongoing risk of supply disruptions. 

Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were at $72.07 per barrel at 0659 GMT, up 49 cents, or 0.7 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were up 49 cents, or 0.7 percent, at $67.01 a barrel.

In the United States, crude inventories fell by 1 million barrels last week, to 428 million barrels, according to a weekly report by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday.

Official weekly U.S. data will be published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday.

Outside the United States, oil markets have been receiving general support due to a sense that there are high risks of supply disruptions, including a potentially spreading conflict in the Middle East, renewed U.S. sanctions against Iran and falling output as a result of political and economic crisis in Venezuela.

Beyond voluntary supply restrictions aimed at propping up prices led by the producer cartel of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) since 2017, falling output in Venezuela due to its political and economic turmoil was supporting prices.

“OPEC production is currently lower than expected as a result of large declines in Venezuelan output caused by a deterioration in the economic situation there,

The lower OPEC supplies come as demand is healthy, with China’s refineries processing a record 12.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in March.

Dutch bank ING said in a note to clients that Brent had risen back above $70 per barrel in April “due to geopolitical risks along with some fundamentally bullish developments in the market”.

It raised its average 2018 price forecast for Brent to $66.50 a barrel from $60.25, and its 2018 WTI forecast to $62.50 per barrel from $57.75.

For next year, however, ING expects lower prices due to rising U.S. crude output, which has jumped by a quarter since mid-2016 to over 10.5 million bpd.

The structure of the Brent and WTI forward price curve also points to a tighter market this year than in 2019.

The premium for June 2018 over June 2019 prices for Brent and WTI is $5.50 and $6 per barrel respectively, creating a market structure known as backwardation in which it is attractive to sell crude immediately instead of keeping it in storage for later sale.

Oil gains on U.S. crude drawdown, easing of tension in U.S.-China spat

Oil Stock Markets

Oil prices rose on Thursday, buoyed by the U.S. government data showing a surprise drawdown in crude stockpiles and an easing of tensions over a trade row between the United States and China.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery CLc1 was up 27 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $63.64 a barrel by 0445 GMT after settling down 14 cents.

Front-month London Brent crude LCOc1 for June delivery was up 30 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $68.32, having ended down 10 cents.

Oil also got support from firm global equities, as the United States expressed willingness to negotiate a resolution on trade after proposed U.S. tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods prompted a quick response from Beijing that it would retaliate by targeting key American imports.

Oil prices have recently closely tracked equities.

Before the rebound late on Wednesday, after the release of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data, WTI and Brent had hit two-week lows after China proposed a broad range of tariffs on U.S. exports, feeding fears of a trade war.

U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels last week, compared with analysts’ expectations for an increase of 246,000 barrels, EIA data showed on Wednesday.

Oil has also received support after a Reuters survey showed on Wednesday that OPEC oil output fell in March to an 11-month low due to declining Angolan exports, Libyan outages and a further slide in Venezuelan output.

Shanghai crude futures trading was closed on Thursday due to a public holiday in China. Trading will resume on Monday.

Oil prices stable but capped by the relentless rise in U.S. production

Oil Stock Markets

Oil prices held steady on Thursday, supported by healthy global demand but capped by the relentless rise in U.S. production that is undermining efforts led by producer cartel OPEC to cut supplies and prop up markets. 

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 rose 17 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $61.13 a barrel by 0245 GMT. 

Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $65 per barrel, up 11 cents, or 0.2 percent. 

Reuters technical commodity analyst Wang Tao said market signals for Brent pointed to a continuation of recent sideways movements, although he added that technical chart indicators were “indicating the current sideways move may end very soon.”

Prices were receiving support from healthy demand. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Wednesday that oil consumption was expected to grow by 1.62 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018.

But looming over markets has been a relentless climb in U.S. crude output C-OUT-T-EIA, which hit another record last week by rising to 10.38 million bpd, up by more than 23 percent since mid-2016. 

Commercial crude inventories C-STK-T-EIA were up by 5 million barrels, at 430.93 million barrels. 

U.S. crude production, which has already overtaken that of top exporter Saudi Arabia, is expected to rise above 11 million bpd later this year, taking the top spot from Russia, according to the International Energy Agency.

Soaring U.S. output, as well as rising output in Canada and Brazil, is undermining efforts by Middle East dominated OPEC to withhold supplies in order to bolster prices.

OPEC on Wednesday raised its forecast for non-member oil supply to almost double the growth predicted four months ago.

The group said non-OPEC producers would boost supply by 1.66 million bpd in 2018.

But since OPEC expects demand this year to grow by only 1.62 million bpd, that would leave the market slightly oversupplied and may require more or longer supply restraint.

OPEC and several other non-OPEC producers led by Russia began cutting supply in January, 2017 to erase a global glut of crude that had built up since 2014.

OPEC said its combined output dropped by 77,000 bpd to 32.186 million bpd in February, led by declines in Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.

These cuts and rising U.S. output mean that OPEC is losing market share.

Oil steadies after big fall

Oil Stock Markets

Oil prices steadied on Thursday, supported by healthy demand, after falling the previous day on the back of record U.S. crude production and rising inventories. 

Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $64.46 per barrel at 0506 GMT, up 12 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their previous close. That slight rise came after a more-than-2 percent fall the previous day.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $61.26 a barrel, up 11 cents, or 0.2 percent. WTI also fell by more than 2 percent the previous session.

The slight recovery on Thursday came amid a U.S. crude inventory build that was not as big as expected during the current seasonal demand lull at the end of winter, when many oil refineries shut down for maintenance. 

The EIA reported late on Wednesday that U.S. crude inventories C-STK-EIA rose by 2.4 million barrels in the week to March 2, to 425.91 million barrels, less than the 2.7 million barrel increase analysts had forecast.

On the demand side, U.S. bank Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients dated March 7 that the outlook remained for healthy growth, despite recent signs of a slight economic slowdown.

Despite this, soaring U.S. production, which last week marked another record, at 10.37 million barrels per day (bpd), is looming over oil markets.

Oil prices under pressure ahead of U.S. supply data

Global Stock Markets

Crude prices came under pressure, ahead of U.S. supply data that could show rising stockpiles, and as it followed perceived riskier assets lower after the resignation of the White House’s chief economic adviser, Gary Cohn.

April West Texas Intermediate crude CLJ8, -0.77%  dropped 53 cents, or 0.9%, to $62.07 a barrel. The contract has gained 2.6% over the past two sessions, scoring a third-straight climb on Wednesday. May Brent crude LCOK8, -0.84% the global oil benchmark, fell 62 cents, or 0.9%, to $65.17 a barrel.

The American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday reported U.S. crude supplies rose 5.7 million barrels for the week ended March 2, according to sources. It also showed a fall of 4.5 million barrels in gasoline stockpiles, while distillate inventories climbed 1.5 million barrels.

That data comes ahead of official supply data from the Energy Information Administration due Wednesday morning. Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts expect the EIA to report a rise of 2.5 million barrels for crude inventories, along with declines of 500,000 barrels for gasoline and 1.6 million barrels for distillate supplies.

Oil prices fell late Tuesday on the API data, with losses then compounded by news of Cohn’s resignation, which also triggered sharp losses for U.S. stock futures and weakness in the U.S. dollar. Oil has been broadly tracking moves in stock markets, which have been volatile since an early February selloff.

Cohn’s resignation came on the heels of U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose steel and aluminum tariffs that had been opposed by the economic adviser. He was largely viewed as a steady hand in an administration that some critics have called tumultuous.

On Nymex, April gasoline RBJ8, -0.09% shed 0.2% to $1.929 a gallon, while April heating oil HOJ8, -0.61%  fell nearly 1% to $1.885 a gallon.

April natural gas NGJ18, +1.16%  was flat at $2.75 per million British thermal units.

Oil prices edges at $65 as U.S. shale output gains

Global Stock Markets

Oil prices edged higher towards $65 per barrel on Monday but predictions of a major spike in U.S. oil output in the next five years capped the market’s gains. 

International benchmark Brent crude was up 36 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $64.73 a barrel by 1028 GMT. The contract was well below this year’s highs of over $71 per barrel that it hit in January. 

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 42 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $61.67 per barrel. 

The International Energy Agency on Monday revised U.S. oil output growth up sharply, saying the country would be producing a total of nearly 17 million barrels per day in 2023, up from 13.2 million last year, eating into OPEC’s market share and moving closer to self-sufficiency. 

The IEA, which advises industrialised nations on energy policies, also said it expected oil demand growth to average a fairly robust 1.1 percent a year to 2023 and said OPEC would fail to significantly increase its production capacity. 

According to EIA's mid-term market report, oil production growth from the United States, Brazil, Canada and Norway can keep the world well supplied, more than meeting global oil demand growth through 2020

One thing hasn’t changed over the past year, however. Upstream investment shows little sign of recovering from its plunge in 2015-2016, which raises concerns about whether adequate supply will be available to offset natural field declines and meet robust demand growth after 2020, it added. 

Oil ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other global oil players are set to gather in Houston as CERAWeek, the largest energy industry conference, begins on Monday. 

OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo and other OPEC officials are expected to hold a dinner on Monday with U.S. shale firms on the sidelines of the conference. 

Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouel, the United Arab Emirates oil minister and OPEC’s current president, said on Sunday that the oil cartel has not discussed rolling over production cuts next year. 

U.S. crude oil production has already risen past that of top exporter Saudi Arabia, to 10.28 million barrels per day (bpd).

U.S. Shale Surge Offsets Lowest Saudi Oil Imports Since 1980s

Global Stock Markets

 America’s role in the global oil market was flipped on its head in 2017. As shale producers cranked out more and more crude, the U.S. relied less and less on some of its traditional sources of oil. 

At the same time, exports of crude, gasoline and other refined fuels surged higher than ever before.

The U.S. bypassed Saudi Arabia late last year and is nipping on the heels of Russia to be the world’s biggest oil producer.

November output hit a record of 10.057 million barrels a day after the Energy Information Administration revised its data upward. U.S. frackers ramped up production as prices rose toward $60 a barrel late in the year, drawing more drillers to the market.

Two of the most-watched members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries sent less crude to the U.S. -- one by choice, and one not so much.

Saudi deliveries fell as planned production cuts were implemented to help balance the market and support prices. Venezuela’s hit came amid U.S.-imposed financial sanctions and shrinking production. Meanwhile, imports from Iraq jumped to help keep OPEC steady.

Last year, exports of crude, gasoline and distillates all rose to record highs, and combined shipments abroad finished off the year at 7.3 million barrels a day in December, the largest volume ever in EIA data.

The export machine will likely keep running at full steam in 2018. Demand for refined products may continue to strengthen from Latin America as local refineries struggle to stay in good keep.

Gulf Coast crude exports have more potential, too, now that the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port can load supertankers.

US Crude Stocks Rise: Oil Price Fall

Oil Stock Markets

Oil prices fell on Wednesday as weak Chinese and Japanese industrial data triggered concerns of an economic slowdown that could lower oil demand, and as an industry data report showed an increase in U.S. crude stockpiles amid soaring output. 

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 31 cents, or 0.5 percent, at $62.70 a barrel by 0446 GMT, after falling 90 cents in the previous session. 

Brent crude was down 40 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $66.23 a barrel. On Tuesday, Brent fell 87 cents to $66.63.

Traders said oil prices declined on concerns of a slowdown in the global economy after China reported on Wednesday that factory growth in February was at its lowest since July 2016.

China is the world’s second-biggest economy and the biggest importer of oil after overtaking the Unites States last year. Crude oil demand is highly correlated to economic growth. 

While China’s week-long Lunar New Year holiday this month disrupted business activity, traders also pointed to tougher pollution rules that curtailed factory output. 

In Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, industrial output in January took its biggest tumble since a devastating earthquake in March 2011, highlighting a weakening in demand and a build up of inventory. 

In the United States, the world’s biggest oil consumer, rising crude stockpiles weighed on prices.

Data on Tuesday from the American Petroleum Institute showed that crude inventories rose by 933,000 barrels in the week to Feb. 23, to 421.2 million barrels. 

Refinery crude runs dropped by 209,000 barrels per day (bpd), the API data also showed, implying a drop in demand for feedstock crude. Gasoline stocks rose by 1.9 million barrels. 

Official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due out later on Wednesday.

Soaring U.S. production has pressured oil prices at a time when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia have reduced output to support prices. 

U.S. crude oil production has risen by a fifth since mid-2016 to more than 10 million bpd.

On Tuesday, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said the United States will likely overtake Russia as the world’s biggest oil producer by 2019.

The United States overtook Saudi Arabia, the world’s top crude oil exporter, late last year.

Oil prices erased earlier gains: U.S. supply outweigh signs of demand gains

Oil Stock Markets

Oil prices on Tuesday erased earlier gains as investor concerns about rising U.S. oil output offset signs of stronger demand and faith in the ability of OPEC production curbs to curtail supply.  

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April delivery CLc1 was down 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $63.76 a barrel by 0532 GMT. The contract on Monday rose to its highest since Feb. 6 at $64.24. 

Brent crude LCOc1 in London was down 10 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $67.40 a barrel.

Soaring U.S. production is upending global oil markets, coming at a time when other major producers - including Russia and members of the Middle East-dominated Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) - have been withholding output to prop up prices LCOc1. 

The United States will overtake Russia as the world’s biggest oil producer by 2019 at the latest, the International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said on Tuesday. 

U.S. output was 10.27 million barrels per day (bpd), according to weekly government data released last Thursday, higher than the latest figures for Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest exporter, and just below Russia.

Earlier on Tuesday prices gained, extending multi-day rises for both crude futures. Last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said there was a surprise draw on oil stockpiles amid a drop in imports and a surge in exports.

U.S. crude inventories are forecast to have risen by 2.7 million barrels last week.

Gasoline stocks are expected to fall by 600,000 barrels, while distillate inventories, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, may decline by 700,000 barrels. 

The American Petroleum Institute is scheduled to release its weekly data later on Tuesday, followed by the EIA on Wednesday.

U.S. shale investors still waiting on payoff from oil boom

Global Stock Markets

U.S. oil production has topped 10 million barrels per day, approaching a record set in 1970, but many investors in the companies driving the shale oil revolution are still waiting for their payday.

 Shale producers have raised and spent billions of dollars to produce more oil and gas, ending decades of declining output and redrawing the global energy trade map. But most U.S. shale producers have failed for years to turn a profit with the increased output, frustrating their financial backers.

Wall Street’s patience ran out late last year as investors called for producers to shift more cash to dividends and share buybacks.

And yet such calls for payouts remain a debate in the industry as oil prices have recently creeped up to four-year highs. Investors demanding immediate returns could risk forcing firms to curb expansion that could have a higher long-term payoff if oil prices continue to rise.

For now, share prices of shale producers have yet to fully recover from the 2014 oil price CLc1 collapse, when many investors took losses as hundreds of firms went bankrupt and those that survived struggled.

The energy sector has lagged the rally that took the broader stock market to record highs. The S&P 500 Energy Index .SPNY remains nearly a third off its peak in mid-2014, when oil prices CLc1LCOc1 topped $100 a barrel. The broader S&P 500 index .INX is up 39 percent during the same period.

This year, five of the 15 largest U.S. independent shale firms have started paying or raised quarterly dividends, the documents show. But six of the firms have never offered a dividend or have not restored cuts implemented since the 2014 oil price collapse.

Anadarko Petroleum Corp (APC.N) earlier this month added $500 million to an existing buyback program and raised its dividend by 20 percent, sending its shares up 4.5 percent the next trading day. Buybacks reduce the number of shares outstanding, boosting the value of stock that remains.

Shares in Pioneer Natural Resources Co (PXD.N) also rose 4 percent immediately after raising its dividend four-fold and posting better-than-forecast fourth quarter results earlier this month.

Companies that have resisted boosting dividends, by contrast, have seen their valuations fall.

Of the six, shares in four - Cimarex Energy Co (XEC.N), Devon Energy Corp (DVN.N), Parsley Energy Inc (PE.N) and Noble Energy Inc (NBL.N) - have lost at least 19 percent in the last 12 months. Only one, Continental Resources Inc (CLR.N), is higher than a year ago.
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Four producers, including Hess Corp (HES.N), kept dividends steady through the downturn.

Recent oil price gains have eased the pressure from shareholders.

In January, U.S. oil futures CLc1 jumped to $66.14 a barrel, up 56 percent from last year’s low and at a level not seen in four years.

Since then, prices have cooled to about $63 a barrel, but remain 17 percent above a year ago, boosting cash flow for firms that have expanded output.

Shale output growth continues to outpace forecasts. The U.S. Energy Information Administration this month said United States production could top 11 million barrels per day by the end of 2018, a year earlier than it had expected just a month ago.

Producers have pushed up spending plans for all of 2018 by 10 percent over last year, according to a tally of 41 of the 65 producers tracked by financial services firm Cowen & Co.

Some companies have maintained conservative assumptions for the average oil price for 2018, budgeting for prices between $50 and $55 a barrel.

A higher price will mean they can cover new drilling investments and still pay dividends.

Investors are searching for firms that can find the optimal balance between the conflicting goals of controlling costs, paying dividends and increasing production.

US Markets : Top 5 Things to Know today

Global Stock Markets

Top 5 Things to Know in the Market today

1. Global Stocks Slump Amid Fed-Driven Jitters

Global stocks were on the backfoot, after minutes of the Federal Reserve's January meeting underlined expectations for faster U.S. interest rate hikes, souring appetite for riskier assets around the world.

Asian markets ended broadly lower, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Japan's Nikkei 225 faring the worst, closing down around 1.5% and 1.1% respectively.

But Chinese markets were in a better mood, returning from their long holiday break with a gain of about 2.2% for the Shanghai blue-chip index.

In Europe, stocks were notably weaker in mid-morning trade. The Stoxx Europe 600 index, the region's broadest measure of share prices, fell 0.9%, with all sectors and major bourses in negative territory.

Meanwhile, early indications from U.S. futures suggest another day in the red for Wall Street. Dow futures were down nearly 100 points, or around 0.4%, while S&P 500 futures fell 5 points, or about 0.2%. Nasdaq 100 futures lost 30 points, or roughly 0.4%.

U.S. stocks ended a tumultuous session firmly lower on Wednesday, with the Dow erasing gains of nearly 300 points following the release of the hawkish Fed minutes.

2. Dollar, Treasury Yields Stand Tall Thanks To Hawkish Fed View

The U.S. dollar rose to a one-and-a-half-week high against a basket of major currencies, boosted by speculation the Fed will raise interest rates at a faster pace than currently expected.

The dollar index, which gauges the U.S. currency against a basket of six major rivals, reached its best level since Feb. 12 at 90.17 in overnight trade. It was last at 90.05, well above a three-year low of 88.15 touched last week.

Meanwhile, yields on the 10-year bond were last trading at 2.925%. They rose to a four-year peak of 2.957% a day earlier, creeping ever closer to 3% - a huge psychological milestone for bulls and bears alike.


3. Oil Under Pressure Ahead of EIA Weekly Supply Report

The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its weekly report on oil supplies, which comes out one day later than usual due to Monday's Presidents' Day holiday, at 11:00AM ET (1600GMT), amid analyst expectations for a gain of nearly 1.8 million barrels.

The American Petroleum Institute said late Wednesday that U.S. oil inventories fell by 0.9 million barrels last week. There are often sharp divergences between the API estimates and the official figures from EIA.

Oil prices were under pressure, with WTI crude futures dropping 1% to $61.11 per barrel, while Brent crude futures were at $64.91 per barrel, down 0.8%.

4. Bitcoin Slides Back Towards $10,000-Level

The prices of major cryptocurrencies continued lower for the second day in a row, with Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple all suffering significant declines, as overall market sentiment waned.

The price of the world's biggest virtual currency by market cap, Bitcoin lost around 4% to $10,521, after hitting an overnight low of $10,200. After nearly doubling in price since the Feb. 6 low close to $6,000, traders have begun dumping some of their holdings, market participants said.

The news was no better for other major digital currencies, with Ethereum, the world’s second largest cryptocurrency by market cap, falling around 5% to a one-week low of $842.20.

The third largest cryptocurrency Ripple slumped around 4% to trade at $0.96571. It has declined more than 60% so far this year, making it one of the worst performing digital currencies of 2018.

5. UK Economic Growth Revised Lower

Britain's economy grew more slowly than first thought during the three months to December, official figures showed, raising questions about the economy's strength as the Bank of England prepares to raise interest rates.

Gross domestic product grew by 0.4% between October and December, the Office for National Statistics said, below economists' forecasts and a preliminary estimate of 0.5%. In year on year terms, downwardly revised growth of 1.4% was the weakest in more than five years.

The pound lost ground against the dollar, with GBP/USD falling to a one-week low of 1.3880.

Oil falls as dollar firms, U.S. oil output expected to rise

Oil Stock Markets

Oil prices fell on Wednesday, weighed down by a rebound in the U.S. dollar from three-year lows hit last week and an expected rise in U.S. oil production. 

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $61.07 a barrel at 0446 GMT, down 72 cents, or 1.2 percent, from their last settlement. 

Brent crude futures fell 60 cents, or 0.9 percent, from their last close to $64.65 per barrel.

Wang Tao, Reuters technical commodity analyst, said Brent could fall into a range of $63.92 to $64.41 per barrel, as suggested by its wave pattern and a projection analysis. 

Traders said the declines were driven by a recovery in the dollar, which potentially hits fuel demand as it makes greenback-denominated oil imports more expensive for countries using other currencies.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose for a second day on Wednesday, moving further away from the three-year lows reached last week. 

Also pressuring prices is surging U.S. production, now the world’s second-largest oil stream at more than 10 million barrels per day (bpd), only slightly behind Russia and ahead of top exporter Saudi Arabia. 

The next set of weekly U.S. oil production data is due to be published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday after a one-day delay because of the President’s Day holiday on Monday. 

That data will also include U.S. inventory figures that are expected to show crude oil stockpiles rose 1.3 million barrels in the week to Feb. 16. Oil product stockpiles, including gasoline and distillate fuels, are all expected to decline. 

Despite the rising U.S. output, overall oil markets remain well supported due to healthy demand growth and supply restraint by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that started last year to draw down excess global inventories. 

“A roughly balanced market is anticipated in calendar year 2018, with the risks around that view tilted toward surplus,” mining and energy giant BHP said in its economic and commodity outlook for the year, published this week.

Oil hits $70 a barrel for the first time in three years

Oil Stock Markets

Prices edged higher as Opec nations and their allies cleared the glut caused by the growth of US shale 

Oil topped $70 a barrel in London for the first time in three years as production cuts by Opec and rising demand whittle away a global surplus.

Brent crude futures, used in the pricing of more than half the world’s oil, rose as much as 1.2 per cent to the highest since December 4, 2014.

Prices rallied after the longest stretch of declines in US inventories during winter in a decade.

Oil’s rally shows that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are succeeding in clearing the glut triggered by the growth of US shale oil.

Prices have also been supported by concerns that supply disruptions could stem from rising political tensions in Opec members Iran and Venezuela.

Brent for March settlement advanced to $69.90 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 11:28 Eastern time.

With the climb in crude, there are growing signs that Opec could be falling into a trap it had sought to avoid.

Rising prices are putting US production on track to rival both Saudi Arabia and Russia, with output likely to exceed 10 million barrels a day as soon as next month and top 11 million before the end of 2019, according to Energy Information Administration forecasts.

Oil prices stable on lower US crude stocks, but rising output weighs

Oil Stock Markets

U.S. commercial crude stocks fall to lowest level since 2015 but U.S. crude output hits highest since 1970s. Saudi Arabia says it will take more time to re-balance markets

Oil prices were stable on Thursday after posting strong gains late in the previous session on the back of a drop in U.S. crude inventories.

Another rise in U.S. oil production, which is close to breaking through 10 million barrels per day (bpd) is capping crude prices as it undermines efforts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia to tighten the market through withholding output this year and next.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $58.05 a barrel at 0126 GMT, down 3 cents from their last settlement.

Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $64.58 a barrel, down 8 cents.

Both crude benchmarks gained around 1 percent during the previous session.

Traders said falling U.S. crude oil inventories were supporting the market.

U.S. crude inventories <C-STK-T-EIA> fell by 6.5 million barrels in the week to Dec. 15, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. Overall crude stocks, excluding the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell to 436 million barrels, the lowest since October, 2015.
The rebalancing of supply and demand is a result of OPEC and Russian led voluntary production cuts.

Despite this, the energy minister of Saudi Arabia, the world's top crude exporter and OPEC's de-facto leader, said it would take more time to rein in the global supply overhang, which was created by strong global production increases in the years up to 2015.

OPEC's and Russia's efforts to rebalance markets and prop up prices are being undermined by rising production in the United States, which does not participate in the deal to cut.

U.S. crude production <C-OUT-T-EIA> hit 9.79 million bpd last week, its highest since the early 1970s, the only time American production breached 10 million bpd.

This brings U.S. output close to that of top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia, which pump around 10 and 11 million bpd.

Oil traders this week eyed with interest the passing of a U.S. tax bill, which is seen to weigh on crude prices in the longer term.

Oil prices dip as traders assess U.S. hurricane impact

Oil prices edged down on Tuesday, as traders weighed up the dampening effect on demand of Hurricane Irma versus refinery restarts in the wake of Hurricane Harvey that should lead to more crude oil processing.

International benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 was down 14 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $53.70 per barrel by 0530 GMT from the previous close. 

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 was down 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $47.95 a barrel. 

U.S. refineries, including the largest U.S. refinery Motiva Enterprises MOTIV.UL, have started to come back online. Motiva restarted production on Monday after being shut for about two weeks as Hurricane Harvey ripped through the U.S. Gulf coast. 

On Harvey’s heels, Hurricane Irma slammed into Florida on Sunday, leaving more than 7.4 million homes and businesses without power, but has since been downgraded to a tropical storm. 

U.S. crude inventories likely rose last week following the hurricane impact, while refined product stockpiles were forecast to have declined, a preliminary Reuters poll showed. 

Six analysts polled ahead of inventory reports from industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated, on average, that crude stocks likely rose 2.3 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 8. 

The API is due to release its data for last week at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT) on Tuesday and the EIA report is scheduled at 10:30 a.m. EDT on Wednesday. 

As mixed market indicators kept oil prices in a range, RBC Capital Markets said in a note that it expected “WTI and Brent to average $49.30 and $52.50 per barrel this year before increasing to average $53 and $55.50 a barrel next year.” 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), of which Saudi Arabia is the de facto leader, and other producers including Russia, have agreed to curb their output by around 1.8 million barrels per day until next March. 

OPEC’s secretary-general Mohammad Barkindo said on Monday the supply cut deal was expected to help the global oil market rebalance and strong demand could further reduce oil inventories.

Oil prices bounce but stuck near 2017 lows on supply overhang

Oil prices edged up from 2017 lows on Friday but an ongoing supply excess put them on track for their fourth consecutive week of losses despite OPEC-led production cuts to support the crude market.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 were up 42 cents at $47.34 per barrel by 0755 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $44.74 per barrel, up 28 cents.

Both benchmarks remained roughly 13 percent below where they stood in late May, when producers led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) extended a pledge to cut production by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) by an extra nine months until the end of the first quarter of 2018.

Rising U.S. oil output has undermined the impact of OPEC-led cuts. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) this week showing growing gasoline stocks and shaky demand, despite the peak summer driving season, sent prices tumbling.

"It's going to be difficult to have a rally unless there's a disruption or some news from OPEC," said Olivier Jakob, managing director with PetroMatrix.

Recovering production from Libya and Nigeria, both of which were exempt from OPEC cuts, and high exports and production from Russia were also contributing to the ongoing glut.

Top producer Russia, not an OPEC member but which signed up to the deal to cut output, is expected to export 61.2 million tonnes of oil via pipelines in the third quarter, equivalent to about 5 million bpd, against 60.5 million tonnes in the second quarter, according to industry sources and Reuters calculations.

In the United States, which is not participating in any deal to reduce production, oil output C-OUT-T-EIA has risen more than 10 percent in the past year to 9.3 million bpd. The EIA expects that to rise above 10 million bpd in 2018.