Monday, 16 April 2018

ASX set for uncertain start as tensions rise

As last trading week came to a close in North America, there remained a question as to whether risk positions should be held over the weekend. On Saturday, news broke that France, the United States, and Britain conducted "precision strikes" on Syria.
The heightening of new geopolitical developments may cloud the data releases from the week ahead that included RBA minutes, Federal Reserve speakers, Bank of Canada's Rate announcement, and a heavy Chinese economic calendar that includes GDP, industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset data.

The difficulty for markets tends not to be pricing risk, but rather not knowing when risk needs to be priced as geopolitical concerns put traders and investors at the whim of various headlines, and not the economic calendar where we're more comfortable.

ASX: The local sharemarket is set for an uncertain start to the week. With the prospect of geopolitical tensions ratcheting higher between the US and Russia, volatility in global financial markets seems likely to reappear and drag down the S&P/ASX at the start of the week. Futures are pointing to a 6-point drop at the open.

Last week, the headline Australian stock index finished the week higher at 5829.10, good for a gain of +0.7% over the course of the week. Receding concerns over a US military strike in Syria proved to be a positive driver for global equities, but the catalyst appears to be short-lived: the US, UK, and France carried out airstrikes against Damascus early-Saturday morning in Syria

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