Gold (GLD) briefly made new highs above $1,300, but couldn’t follow
through. The reaction may look slightly bearish, but perhaps this was
expected after a rally of nearly $100 from the July lows.
Silver (SLV) on the other hand seemed to break-out and should now rally to at least $17.75.
A move to below last week’s low of $16.50 is a failed break like we saw in April r and there’s not much point to be long below there (at least no in the short term).
As the price moved below $47.58, it flushed out some of the late bulls, and we now have this count as the primary view.
There was a very nice reaction from $46.50, where wave C and wave A were equal, but does this mean that the correction is over? Perhaps, but here is a follow up from the chart from the 10th of August highs (and was included in last week’s newsletter).
Oil is trading in a choppy range for over a year and we’re not sure there’s any reason for that condition to change, but we believe it could still work its way lower in the coming weeks for a buying opportunity at sub $45.
There’s not too much to say about Gas this week, but the shape and characteristics of this pullback is encouraging those who are long.
So far this August, we have a strong move up followed by a choppy, slow decline. However, this corrective sequence in gas has been so persistent we cannot say we have hit bottom until there is a sustained move above $3.
Yes, we see it too; this could go up or could go down, but the point is you don’t have to do anything right now. A trading opportunity comes at $2.70 or after a move above $3.
So that we are clear, none of this alters our longer-term view of a rally above $4, although Q1 2018 may be too soon for this call (could be Q2 but timing is always difficult)
Last week we called for ‘a dip to the 78.30% Fib at 92.7 and that looks like a decent spot to try going long’, which was decent in the short term (the weekly low was 92.73), but let’s look at the bigger picture:
We can see here that the C wave rally last week may have completed the correction and the dollar looks about ready for the final decline to below 91.
Silver (SLV) on the other hand seemed to break-out and should now rally to at least $17.75.
A move to below last week’s low of $16.50 is a failed break like we saw in April r and there’s not much point to be long below there (at least no in the short term).
As the price moved below $47.58, it flushed out some of the late bulls, and we now have this count as the primary view.
There was a very nice reaction from $46.50, where wave C and wave A were equal, but does this mean that the correction is over? Perhaps, but here is a follow up from the chart from the 10th of August highs (and was included in last week’s newsletter).
Oil is trading in a choppy range for over a year and we’re not sure there’s any reason for that condition to change, but we believe it could still work its way lower in the coming weeks for a buying opportunity at sub $45.
There’s not too much to say about Gas this week, but the shape and characteristics of this pullback is encouraging those who are long.
So far this August, we have a strong move up followed by a choppy, slow decline. However, this corrective sequence in gas has been so persistent we cannot say we have hit bottom until there is a sustained move above $3.
Yes, we see it too; this could go up or could go down, but the point is you don’t have to do anything right now. A trading opportunity comes at $2.70 or after a move above $3.
So that we are clear, none of this alters our longer-term view of a rally above $4, although Q1 2018 may be too soon for this call (could be Q2 but timing is always difficult)
Last week we called for ‘a dip to the 78.30% Fib at 92.7 and that looks like a decent spot to try going long’, which was decent in the short term (the weekly low was 92.73), but let’s look at the bigger picture:
We can see here that the C wave rally last week may have completed the correction and the dollar looks about ready for the final decline to below 91.
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