World stocks rises up from two and a half month low, China soothes currency markets

Global Stock Markets

World stocks rose on Tuesday, supported by gains in Europe and three straight days of tech-driven rises in the United States, even though markets across Asia and especially China remained in the grip of trade turbulence. 

Wall Street was set for another firmer session as investors positioned for strong Silicon Valley earnings before the reporting season starts next week, while European shares also rose after a deal on settling a migration policy row that had threatened Germany’s coalition government.

But a July 6 deadline is looming for Washington to impose tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods that Beijing has vowed to match with tariffs on U.S. products. President Donald Trump also threatened on Monday to “do something” if the United States was not better treated by the World Trade Organisation.

The prospects of a full-blown trade war and relentless yuan weakening CNY= -- it has fallen 5 percent in the past two weeks to 10-month lows -- reportedly forced China into intervention via state-run banks.. The currency then reversed earlier losses to move back into positive territory for the day against the dollar.

Other Asian currencies weakened, especially those such as the Indonesian rupiah that are doubly exposed — to trade and oil prices approaching $80 a barrel LCOc1.

Wall Street was set for another firmer session as investors positioned for strong Silicon Valley earnings before the reporting season starts next week, while European shares also rose after a deal on settling a migration policy row that had threatened Germany’s coalition government.

But a July 6 deadline is looming for Washington to impose tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods that Beijing has vowed to match with tariffs on U.S. products. President Donald Trump also threatened on Monday to “do something” if the United States was not better treated by the World Trade Organisation.

On equity markets, Hong Kong dived as much as 3.3 percent at one point to nine-month lows .HSI, hit also by a U.S. move to block China Mobile (0941.HK) from offering services to the U.S. market. Shanghai's bourse hit a 2-year trough .SSEC though both indexes inched higher towards the close as the yuan recovered. Japan's Nikkei .N225 edged to a near three-month closing low.

The mood was more cheerful in Europe where a pan-European equity index rose half a percent , the euro firmed marginally and bond yields rose after German Chancellor Angela Merkel struck the deal with her Bavarian conservative coalition partners.

Equity futures for the U.S. S&P500 and Nasdaq ESc1 NQc1 indicated a firmer session after Wall Street ended higher on Tuesday for the third day in a row. Gains of around 1 percent in tech firms such as Microsoft and Apple offset concerns about trade and its impact on growth.

Tech shares have been relatively resilient to trade fears - the New York Stock Exchange’s index of 10 tech giants including China’s Alibaba has gained over 30 percent this year. They are seen delivering another set of robust quarterly earnings.

While U.S. growth and company earnings seem unassailable, tit-for-tat tariffs from China and Europe may ultimately prove detrimental for American businesses and jobs.

U.S. Treasury bond yields rose slightly amid the easier mood but concern about the trade row has pushed the gap between two- and 10-year yields to the narrowest since 2007 US2US10=RR

Iran issues oil warning as UAE says production can rise

Global Stock Markets

Iran issued a new warning over Mideast oil supplies as the United Arab Emirates said on Tuesday it could increase its own production, the latest remarks to follow President Donald Trump's demand for lower global energy prices. 

The comments by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and the unexpected announcement by the UAE's oil-rich capital Abu Dhabi came as US benchmark crude traded around $75 a barrel.

A recent decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase the cartel's own production by 1 million barrels a day has yet to tamp down prices. That's led to higher prices at gasoline pumps in the United States as it heads toward midterm elections for Congress.

Speaking to Iranian expatriates Monday night in Switzerland, where he was on an official visit, Rouhani took aim at America.

The US pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal in May and initially said it wanted allies to stop buying Iranian crude entirely. The State Department said Monday it would examine waivers on a "case-by-case basis'' as it re-imposes sanctions.

Rouhani did not elaborate, but Iran long has asserted it could shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow body of water that separates the Persian Gulf from the wider world. A third of all oil traded by sea passes through the strait and the US Navy regularly has direct, tense encounters with Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard there.

The US Navy's 5th Fleet, which patrols the region, has said it has not seen any ``unsafe and unprofessional'' actions by Iranian naval forces in the Persian Gulf since August 2017. It did not immediately respond to a request for comment Tuesday over Rouhani's remarks.

Separately, Iran's interior minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli warned Tuesday that ``if we close our eyes for 24 hours, 1 million refugees will go toward Europe through our Western borders'' via Turkey. Some 5,000 tons of narcotics also could be smuggled to the West, he added, according to the semi-official .

Iran lies on a major trafficking route between Afghanistan and Europe, as well as the Persian Gulf states. Large drug seizures are common across the region.

Meanwhile, the state-run Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. issued a surprise statement Tuesday saying it has an oil production capacity of 3.3 million barrels per day. It added that it ``remains on track to increase its production capacity to 3.5 million (barrels per day) by the end of 2018.''

The company also said it ``has the ability to increase oil production by several hundred thousand barrels of oil per day, should this be required to help alleviate any potential supply shortage in the market.''

The oil company previously announced in November it had plans to expand its capacity to 3.5 million barrels of oil per day. It produced some 2.8 million barrels of oil per day in May, according to the most recent figures released by OPEC.

Bitcoin Prices Will go Even Higher Once Regulations Become Clearer

Global Stock Markets

Ryan Rabaglia isn’t ready to stop being bullish about Bitcoin any time soon. The Octagon Strategy trader believes that the top-ranked cryptocurrency can still hit new highs.

BTC prices have risen above $6,500 after twice dropping below $6,000 in June 2018.
Regulatory Certainty Will Take Pressure off Bitcoin

In a recent interview with CNBC, Rabaglia declared that clearer market regulations were the likely catalyst for a sustained Bitcoin price rally. According to Rabaglia, regulatory uncertainty was putting immense pressure on the market.

He also said that mainstream investors were reticent on committing fully to the market since the laws guiding crypto commerce are still somewhat vague

In another development, David Garrity, the CEO of GVA Research believes the current BTC price surge is a temporary relief. Speaking recently, Garrity opined that trading levels had come under pressure in the market. Thus, a “relief rally” was inevitable.

Garrity also pointed to the emergence of some positive regulatory developments as the reason the current BTC price surge. According to the GVA Research CEO, recent comments by the SEC concerning the status of Bitcoin and Ethereum, in particular, have taken away some of the negative sentiment among retail investors in the market.

Unlike Rabaglia, Garrity identified end-user adoption as the critical parameter that will drive any sustained BTC price rally. He decried that lack of significant Bitcoin use cases especially in the payments market.

In addition to slow adoption, Garrity mentioned a large number of government investigations into activities in the market as another reason for the price struggles of 2018.

European shares edge higher after breakthrough in Merkel migration row

European Stock Markets

European shares edged higher on Tuesday after German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives settled a row over migration and gave some respite to investors facing a rage of political worries including trade tensions with the United States. 

The pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.6 percent by 0833 GMT with Germany's DAX .GDAXI posting the best performance with a 0.9 percent rise.

The dispute over immigration had threatened to topple Merkel’s fragile governing coalition but in a breakthrough late on Monday evening, her rebellious interior minister dropped his threat to resign after five hours of talks.

Asian shares, which had sustained heavy falls overnight, particularly in China, recouped some of their losses before European bourses opened, helping restore sentiment.

Chinese financial markets have been jittery ahead of a July 6 deadline, when the U.S. is set to slap tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods that Beijing has vowed to match with tariffs on U.S. products.

Miner Glencore fell more than 10 percent after it said a subsidiary had received a U.S. Department of Justice subpoena requesting documents and records on compliance with the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and U.S. money-laundering statutes.

The documents requested from subsidiary Glencore Ltd relate to the group’s business in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Venezuela from 2007 to present, Glencore said, adding it was reviewing the subpoena.

Another big faller was BE Semiconductor, the Dutch equipment maker (BESI.AS) lost over 8 percent after cutting revenue forecast.

Societe Generale (SOGN.PA) rose 1.3 percent and Commerzbank (CBKG.DE) up 2.1 percent after the latter agreed to sell its equity markets and commodities business (EMC) to the French bank.

FTSE climbs higher, Sterling holds gains

European Stock Markets

The UK’s top share index climbed on Tuesday following a shaky start to the month, although mining giant Glencore (GLEN.L) fell after one of its subsidiaries received a U.S. subpoena. 

The pound rose on Tuesday as a rebound in risk appetite supported sterling and after a survey showed Britain’s construction industry enjoying its fastest growth in June in seven months.

The British currency rose 0.4 percent versus the dollar to as high as $1.3196, away from 2018 lows hit last week of $1.3050. Sterling made most of those gains before the construction survey numbers were released. 

The blue-chip FTSE 100 .FTSE index was up 0.3 percent at 7,571.59 points by 0855 GMT, making back some of Monday's 1.2 percent loss when concerns over global trade hit risky assets.

The mood was upbeat across the wider European equity trading landscape after German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives settled a row over migration that threatened to topple her fragile governing coalition late on Monday evening.

On the FTSE, consumer staples, health stocks and financials added the most points to the index.

Shares in IAG (ICAG.L) were among the top gainers, up 2.3 percent on the back of a supportive research note from Credit Suisse in which analysts raised their price target for the British Airways-owner, saying that they expect efficiency gains to drive up margins.

Miners, however, were a weak spot as Glencore (GLEN.L) dropped 12.2 percent to a one-year low. The miner said that a subsidiary had received a U.S. Department of Justice subpoena on compliance with money-laundering laws.

The broader FTSE 350 mining index .FTNMX1770 fell 3.2 percent. The sector has come under pressure from uncertainty over the United States’ trade dispute with China, which has kept a lid on underlying copper prices.

The FTSE 100 has dipped back into negative territory for the year, down 1.5 percent year to date, though it has managed to slightly outperform a 2.1 percent decline for the Euro stoxx .STOXXE index.

British mid caps .FTMC rose 0.4 percent, helped by gains in industrials and consumer stocks.

Asian shares stumble as China extends declines amid trade tensions

Asian Stock Markets

Asian stocks traded mostly lower on Tuesday, with greater China markets extending their declines as investor worries over Beijing's trade relations with the U.S. soured sentiment in the region.

China markets pulled back, extending the last session's sharp declines. The Shanghai composite sank 1.27 percent after touching two-year lows in the last session and the Shenzhen composite pulled back by 1.36 percent.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index plunged 3.08 percent as markets there reopened for trade after a holiday, with the energy and services sectors leading losses. Heavily weighted financials also slumped, with HSBC down 2.79 percent, while technology blue chip Tencent dropped 2.74 percent.

Asian stocks traded mostly lower on Tuesday, with greater China markets extending their declines as investor worries over Beijing's trade relations with the U.S. soured sentiment in the region.

China markets pulled back, extending the last session's sharp declines. The Shanghai composite sank 1.27 percent after touching two-year lows in the last session and the Shenzhen composite pulled back by 1.36 percent.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index plunged 3.08 percent as markets there reopened for trade after a holiday, with the energy and services sectors leading losses. Heavily weighted financials also slumped, with HSBC down 2.79 percent, while technology blue chip Tencent dropped 2.74 percent.
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Elsewhere, Japan's Nikkei 225 turned lower, declining 0.65 percent after earlier retracing some of the sharp declines seen in the overnight session. Airlines and oil producers clung to gains, while most other sectors eased.

In South Korea, the Kospi edged down by 0.37 percent. Manufacturers and technology plays were mixed, with Samsung Electronics gaining 0.99 percent while steelmaker Posco lost 2.06 percent. The S&P/ASX 200, however, bucked the broader trend to rise 0.51 percent.

Meanwhile, MSCI's index of stocks in Asia Pacific outside of Japan sank 1.22 percent in Asia morning trade.

Investors were cautious as markets continued to watch developments on the trade front. A looming July 6 deadline is set to see the U.S. impose a 25 percent tariff on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods from more than 800 product categories. China has also announced that it will retaliate with duties on the same value of U.S. products.

"While we still think that a full-blown trade war is unlikely, the harsh rhetoric and punitive measures have reached a point that warrants serious consideration of such eventualities," Tamur Baig, chief economist at DBS Bank, said in a note. He added that the U.S. would likely be hurt more than China if a trade war ensues, given how China's retaliation can be on multiple fronts and the U.S. is involved in more than one trade spat.

The U.S. is also engaged in disputes on trade issues with other key trading partners, including Canada and the European Union. The U.S. could face tariffs from the European Union on as much as $300 billion in U.S. goods if the Trump administration proceeds with imposing duties on European cars, the Financial Times reported.

Markets in Europe and Asia closed lower in the previous session amid the concerns over trade, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 declining 0.84 percent. Asian stock indexes saw steeper losses as China markets resumed their slide after getting some reprieve at the end of last week, with the Shanghai composite dropping 2.52 percent on Monday.

Amid the market moves ahead of that July 6 deadline for tariffs, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told CNBC there was no "bright line level of the stock market" that would change U.S. President Donald Trump's mind on trade policy.

Those jitters also overshadowed the moderate gains made on Wall Street overnight, with U.S. stocks closing in positive territory after dipping early in the overnight session on trade concerns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.15 percent, or 35.77 points, to close at 24,307.18.

Investor jitters over trade concerns, meanwhile, supported the greenback. The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, traded at 94.925 at 11:24 a.m. HK/SIN after rising above the 95 handle in the overnight session. Against the yen, the dollar traded at 110.86.

China stocks hit turbulence with Asian shares sinking

Asian Stock Markets

Chinese stocks went into a tail spin on Tuesday as turbulence gripped equity markets in Asia, which sank to nine-month lows as investors feared the Sino-U.S. trade row could derail a rare period of synchronized global growth. 

Speculation was rife the central bank in China was intervening in the currency market to staunch losses and prevent a potentially destabilising sell-off in the yuan.

Chinese financial markets have been jittery ahead of a July 6 deadline, when the U.S. is set to slap tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods that Beijing has vowed to match with tariffs on U.S. products.

The trade row between the United States and major economies has rattled financial markets in the past several weeks, with no sign U.S. President Donald Trump is about to back down from his ‘America First’ protectionism policies that many fear will harm the global economy.

The Asia Pacific MSCI index ex-Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS tumbled 1.4 percent to its lowest since September 29, while Japan's Nikkei average .N225 was down 0.86 percent to a near three-month low.

Chinese stocks were hit the most, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index .HSI diving 3.3 percent to its lowest level in ten months, the Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC shedding 1.9 percent to hit a fresh 28 month low.


The Chinese yuan CNY=CFXS, on a downward spiral since mid-June, slipped past 6.7 per dollar in early trading on Tuesday for the first time since Aug. 9, 2017 before paring losses on talk of intervention by the Chinese central bank.

The central bank put the midpoint CNY=PBOC roughly in line with market expectations at 6.6497 yuan per dollar, its weakest level in about 10 months, setting the stage for the day's drop.

The yuan was last traded at 6.6998 per dollar.

Trump told the World Trade Organization on Monday that “we’ll be doing something” if the United States is not treated properly, just hours after the European Union said that U.S. automotive tariffs would hurt its own vehicle industry and prompt retaliation.

Officials in China, the epicentre of the international trade row, have warned the United States that the ti-for-tat tariffs on each others goods will ultimately prove detrimental for American businesses and jobs. L4N1TN1RH

Elsewhere in currency markets, the euro EUR=, which had been pressured by political uncertainty in Germany, pared losses after Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives settled a row over migration that threatened to topple her governing coalition after interior minister Horst Seehofer dropped his threat to quit.

The euro last traded at $1.1632 EUR=, after shedding 0.45 percent overnight.

The dollar last stood at 110.82 yen, giving up gains following sharp falls in Chinese shares.

Investors are also keeping an eye on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy meeting later on Tuesday for any mention of the U.S.-China trade tensions. The central bank is considered certain to maintain rates at 1.5 percent, where they have been since mid-2016.

China is Australia’s major export market and its currency, the Australia dollar, is considered a liquid proxy for China-related risk.

The Aussie dollar was not far off a 1-1/2-year low of $0.7311 AUD=D4 plumbed on Monday, fetching $0.7328.

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday after Libya declared force majeure on some of its supplies, with Brent crude LCOc1 rising 0.83 percent to $77.94 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 was up 0.87 percent to $74.58 a barrel.