Monday, 26 February 2018

Euro gains: Key political developments in Germany and Italy.

European Stock Markets

The euro gained on Monday as a fall in U.S. Treasury yields dragged down the dollar, but trading was relatively quiet ahead of several speeches by central bankers and key political developments in Germany and Italy. 


With the dollar’s bounce since it hit a three year-low on Feb. 16 fizzling out, the euro was able to rise 0.3 percent and climb to $1.2328. 

But the euro remains 2 cents off its recent highs of more than $1.25 - the currency has rallied this year on the back of dollar weakness - and analysts said investors were cautious about taking big positions this week due to political risks. 

Italians vote in a national election on Sunday, while the leading political parties in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, will decide on a coalition deal that could secure Angela Merkel a fourth term as chancellor. 

Analysts pointed to weekly futures data that showed net long positions in the euro had fallen for a third consecutive week. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s appearance in the European Parliament on Monday and euro zone inflation data due later this week also add to a nervous outlook for euro trading. 

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, eased 0.2 percent to 89.685. It gained nearly 0.9 percent last week and pulled away from a three-year low near 88.25 set on Feb. 16. 

A view that the dollar’s sell-off had been overdone, plus minutes from the Fed’s January rate-setting meeting that offered a relatively upbeat tone, helped give the dollar a lift last week.

The dollar fell 0.1 percent versus the yen to 106.65 and erasing some of its earlier losses in Asian trading. 

While stock markets started the week on a solid footing and pointed to strong risk appetite, futures data suggested foreign exchange investors were cutting their risk exposures, albeit from high levels.

Positions in risk-related foreign exchanges, particularly sterling and the Canadian dollar, fell, according to the data.

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