Dollar lower or steady at best over the coming year: Reuters poll

Most major currencies will hold on to their gains made in 2017 against the dollar over the coming year, according to a Reuters poll of currency strategists who were not entirely convinced of the U.S. administration’s ability to pass through tax cuts.

A raft of robust data out of the United States and new general plans on tax reform from the White House sent the dollar .DXY to a seven-week high on Tuesday and up almost 3 percent last month. 

But the latest poll of over 60 strategists taken this week showed the greenback will at best be where it is now in three, six, and 12 months as predictions were largely unchanged, suggesting the current rally will mostly be short-lived. 

That was also partially reflected in predictions for dollar positioning at the end of October. Speculators’ net short bets on the dollar are at their highest since late September 2012, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. 

A touch more than half of 38 respondents who answered an extra question said those bets will decrease by the end of the month, while 10 said they will remain the same. 

While only two strategists said bets against the dollar will increase, just six of them said there will be a reversal in positioning in favor of the greenback. 

Expectations have been weighed lower for the dollar on the lack of belief the U.S administration will be able push through any form of tax reforms. 

Indeed a simple majority of strategists, 24 of 43, who answered an extra question said they do not expect tax cuts will make it through Congress this year. The remaining 19 respondents said they will. 

Strategists’ hesitation in calling for a stronger dollar has also been driven by muted expectations now of higher interest rates in the United States and already mostly priced-in, than the shift in central bank policy in other developed markets.